Pokémon’s 30th Celebration is only days away from its September 16 release, and we finally have a much clearer picture of what collectors will actually be chasing. The English checklist is essentially complete, the remaining premium cards have been revealed, and early product reaching collectors has uncovered three Mew cards that Pokémon had managed to keep hidden.
That last part is particularly interesting because 30th Celebration already looked unusually deep before the surprise cards appeared. Gengar ex has joined Mew, Mewtwo, Pikachu, Sylveon, Greninja and several other major Pokémon near the top of the chase list, while the three new Mew cards add another category that was not included in the early pull rate discussion.
At this point, the question is no longer whether 30th Celebration has enough desirable cards. It clearly does. The more important questions are how difficult the best cards will actually be to pull and how much of the enormous presale premium survives once English product starts being opened in volume.
Gengar Gives 30th Celebration Another Major Chase
One of the biggest additions to the completed English checklist is Gengar ex #154.
Gengar does not need much help from an anniversary theme to attract collectors. It has become one of the strongest Pokémon in the modern card market, with desirable Gengar cards consistently commanding premiums across several generations. Giving it a premium card in 30th Celebration adds another established collector base to a set that already has plenty of them.
That is becoming one of the defining characteristics of this release. There is no shortage of recognizable Pokémon, but more importantly, collectors are not all going to be chasing the same cards.
Mew and Mewtwo have the new Futuristic Rare treatment. Pikachu has an entire 30 card subset along with premium cards of its own. Sylveon and Umbreon bring in Eeveelution collectors, Greninja has become one of the most popular modern Pokémon, and now Gengar adds another character with a long history of expensive cards.
The result is a chase list that is becoming unusually crowded at the top.
That could be good for the set even if it makes individual card prices harder to predict. A set supported by several collector bases does not need one enormous card to carry most of its value. If one chase falls after release, there are still several others competing for collector money.
Pokémon Had Three More Mew Cards Hidden
Just when the checklist appeared to be falling into place, early English product revealed another surprise.
Collectors opening 30th Celebration ahead of the official release have uncovered three previously unrevealed Mew cards. The cards use red, green and blue designs and are numbered separately using “RGB” rather than the normal 30th Celebration numbering.
All three are illustrated by YOSHIROTTEN, who is also responsible for the distinctive artwork used on the new Futuristic Rare Mew and Mewtwo cards.
The three cards are clearly designed as a group, which creates a different collecting dynamic from a normal secret rare. Pulling one may encourage collectors to buy the other two, especially if the cards look significantly better when displayed together.
That can matter more than it initially sounds. Pokémon has used connected artwork and card groups before to create demand that extends beyond the value of one individual card. Collectors who might normally be satisfied pulling a single Mew now have another small subset to complete.
For a set already built heavily around completion and nostalgia, it fits surprisingly well.
The RGB Mews Create a New Pull Rate Question
The bigger PokeForecast question is how these cards are actually distributed.
We have already started getting early information about 30th Celebration pull rates. An official Japanese booster box opening produced four Illustration Rares, one Special Illustration Rare, two Classic Collection cards and one Futuristic Rare from 20 packs. That gave us our first useful look at how the major rarity tiers could be distributed.
The RGB Mews complicate that picture because they represent another chase category that was not accounted for in that opening.
We do not know yet whether they occupy their own rarity slot, replace another hit when they appear or are significantly more difficult to pull than the other premium cards. A handful of early openings is nowhere near enough information to answer that.
This is where I would be particularly careful with early prices.
If one of these cards appears in only a few early openings, the market can quickly interpret that as scarcity. But before thousands of English packs have been opened, there is a major difference between a card being genuinely rare and there simply not being enough product in circulation yet.
The first week should tell us much more.
Completing 30th Celebration Could Be Harder Than the Set Size Suggests
The RGB cards also add another layer for anyone attempting a master set.
30th Celebration already has a structure that makes completion more complicated than simply collecting every numbered card. There is the main set, secret rares, the Classic Collection, the 30 Pikachu cards and several promotional cards distributed through specific products.
Now there is another three card Mew subset to consider.
The Pikachu cards are particularly interesting because each pack contains one of the 30 designs. On paper, that sounds relatively easy. Open 30 packs and you receive 30 Pikachu cards.
In practice, duplicates change the math considerably.
Unless Pokémon uses some type of controlled distribution across sealed products, collecting all 30 through packs alone could require substantially more than 30 packs. Once we have enough English opening data, that is something we can calculate rather than guess.
The same applies to the rest of the set. An overall SIR pull rate is useful, but it does not tell you how difficult Sylveon or Gengar is to pull specifically. If there are several cards sharing the same rarity slot, the odds of pulling the exact card you want can be dramatically worse than the headline rarity rate.
That distinction is going to matter once collectors start comparing the cost of opening packs with simply buying singles.
Presale Prices Are Still Almost Meaningless
All of this is happening while 30th Celebration cards are already being listed at extraordinary prices.
Mew and Mewtwo have attracted some of the most aggressive presale valuations, while sealed products such as the Pokémon Center ETB have also been selling at multiples of retail. The newly revealed cards will almost certainly go through the same process as early copies reach the market.
I would put very little weight on those prices right now.
A card selling for $1,000 when only a handful of copies are available is operating in a completely different market from the same card after hundreds or thousands of copies have been pulled. The buyers willing to pay the most to own something first are also concentrated in the opening days.
That is why release week declines do not necessarily mean collectors suddenly stopped wanting a card. Often the demand is still there, but supply is catching up.
The RGB Mews could be a particularly good example. Their surprise reveal gives them something most 30th Celebration cards no longer have: genuine novelty. That should create very strong initial demand. Whether those prices survive will depend almost entirely on how often the cards start appearing once the set officially releases.
Gengar May Be One of the More Interesting Cards to Watch
Among the regular numbered chase cards, Gengar is one I would watch closely after release.
It has several things working in its favor. The character has a large collector base, premium Gengar cards already have a strong market, and 30th Celebration gives the card the anniversary connection that will apply to the rest of the set.
The risk is competition.
Collectors have a limited amount of money to spend, and this set is asking them to choose between a lot of desirable cards. Someone who normally would have spent heavily on Gengar may instead decide they want the Futuristic Rare Mewtwo, a Sylveon SIR or the complete RGB Mew set.
That is one reason I would not assume every major Pokémon in 30th Celebration can maintain an enormous price simultaneously. The chase list can be deep while individual cards still fall substantially from their first week prices.
The best cards should eventually separate themselves based on artwork, pull difficulty and collector demand.
The Classic Collection Adds Another Market Entirely
The 30 card Classic Collection makes the market even more complicated.
Instead of relying entirely on early Pokémon nostalgia, Pokémon has selected cards from several different periods of the TCG. That brings cards such as Shining Celebi, Dark Tyranitar, Gengar Prime, Rayquaza EX, Pikachu & Zekrom GX, Mew VMAX and Arceus VSTAR into the anniversary set.
For newer collectors, those cards provide a cheaper way to own versions of artwork that may otherwise be expensive or difficult to find. For older collectors, they create another reason to open the anniversary set even if the modern ex cards are not particularly interesting to them.
I am also interested in what happens to the originals.
A reprint does not automatically hurt the card it is based on. Sometimes putting an older card back in front of collectors reminds people why they wanted the original in the first place. The anniversary version satisfies collectors who primarily want the artwork, while collectors interested in rarity and history may start looking for the original printing.
That gives us something we can actually measure after release. If 30th Celebration increases searches and sales for cards such as Gengar Prime, Shining Celebi or older Rayquaza cards, the Classic Collection may end up creating demand outside the set itself.
The Real Data Starts September 16
The next stage for 30th Celebration is much more important than another card reveal.
We need English pull rates.
Once enough product has been opened, we should be able to estimate how frequently SIRs, Futuristic Rares, Classic Collection cards and the RGB Mews actually appear. From there, we can start calculating something much more useful than a simple rarity label: the approximate odds of pulling a specific chase card.
We will also be able to compare those odds with singles prices.
If a card costs $300 but requires an enormous number of packs to pull on average, that price may make more sense than it initially appears. If another card is selling for $500 while opening data shows that it is relatively common, the market has a much harder time defending that price once supply arrives.
That is the type of information that matters much more to me than what somebody is willing to pay four days before release.
My Early Read
The completed checklist and surprise Mew cards reinforce something that has become clearer with almost every 30th Celebration reveal: this set does not have a chase card problem.
There are plenty of them.
Gengar adds another Pokémon with an established high end collector market, while the RGB Mews give collectors a completely unexpected three card subset to chase. Add those to the Futuristic Rares, Pikachu cards, Eeveelutions, SIRs and Classic Collection, and there are more legitimate collector targets here than we see in most modern expansions.
The bigger risk is still price.
30th Celebration can be an excellent set and still have overpriced cards during its first few weeks. In fact, the amount of demand surrounding the anniversary makes that more likely. Early scarcity, aggressive presales and collectors wanting cards immediately can create prices that have very little to do with where the market eventually settles.
For now, I am more interested in recording those prices than chasing them. Once September 16 arrives and we have real English pull rate data, we can start separating the cards that are actually scarce from the ones that simply looked scarce before enough packs were opened.
That is when the real 30th Celebration market begins.
