Pokémon has added even more products to the 30th Celebration lineup before the set has released.
Two additional English products are coming on December 4: a 30th Celebration ex Tin featuring either Sylveon ex or Greninja ex, and another Binder Collection.
The tins will retail for $21.99 and include four 30th Celebration booster packs along with a Sylveon ex or Greninja ex promo.
The newly announced Binder Collection will retail for $31.99 and includes a nine-pocket 30th Celebration binder with five booster packs.
On their own, neither product changes the set.
Together with everything Pokémon has already announced, they strengthen one of the most important arguments surrounding 30th Celebration.
There are going to be a lot of packs.
30th Celebration Has an Enormous Product Lineup
Special Pokémon sets can create a strange perception of scarcity because they do not have normal booster boxes.
You cannot simply walk into a store and buy a 36-pack 30th Celebration booster box.
Packs are distributed through collection products instead.
That can make the set feel more limited.
Then you look at the actual lineup.
The September 16 launch includes ETBs, Pokémon Center ETBs, Tech Sticker Collections, blisters, Knock Out Collections, Poster Collections and Sylveon and Greninja ex Boxes.
October adds Booster Bundles and Mini Tins, along with other products.
November brings the Ditto Premium Collection, two $179.99 Ultra-Premium Collections and Mew and Mewtwo Figure Collections.
Now December adds more tins.
The Ultra-Premium Collections alone contain 29 normal 30th Celebration packs plus a dedicated Classic Collection pack.
This is not a small product rollout.
Pack Supply Matters More Than Product Count
The number of different boxes is not what concerns me.
It is the number of packs inside them.
Every ETB opened adds nine packs.
Every Pokémon Center ETB adds 11.
Every Booster Bundle adds six.
Every December tin adds four.
Every Ultra-Premium Collection adds 29 regular packs before even counting its special Classic Collection pack.
When collectors are trying to forecast singles prices, all of those products eventually feed the same market.
A Mew ex does not care whether it came out of a $180 UPC or a $10 Mini Tin.
Once the card is listed for sale, it becomes another copy competing with every other Mew ex.
That is why product supply matters so much for singles.
The First Week Could Still Be Insane
None of this means 30th Celebration will be easy to find on September 16.
I expect the opposite.
Demand is enormous.
Pokémon Center has already prepared customers for virtual queues and potential sellouts. Major products have been commanding huge secondary market premiums before release.
Retail shelves could disappear quickly.
That will create the appearance of scarcity.
The mistake would be assuming that appearance tells us what supply looks like three months later.
30th Celebration is not a one day release.
Pokémon has products scheduled across September, October, November and now December.
The supply arriving on September 16 is only part of the equation.
This Is Where Release Week Prices Get Dangerous
Imagine one of the major 30th Celebration chase cards sells for $800 during the first weekend.
That sale will get attention.
Collectors will post it.
Sellers will price their copies around it.
What we will not know yet is how many copies are coming.
Thousands of Booster Bundles will not have been opened.
Mini Tins will not have been opened.
UPCs will not have been opened.
December tins will not have been opened.
PSA submissions will barely have started returning.
The first market price is being established before a huge portion of the eventual supply exists.
That does not mean the $800 card has to fall.
If demand is strong enough, it can absorb the supply.
But I would rather see that happen before paying the premium.
30th Celebration Could Repeat a Familiar Pattern
Pokémon anniversary products create enormous FOMO because collectors know the event itself cannot be repeated.
There will only be one 30th anniversary.
That does not mean there will only be one wave of 30th anniversary cards.
Pokémon has every incentive to print enough product to meet a large portion of the demand.
The company wants people opening the anniversary set.
The expanding product lineup suggests it is giving collectors plenty of ways to do exactly that.
This is where collectors need to separate two ideas.
The anniversary is limited by time.
The cards are limited by print quantity.
Those are not the same thing.
The Pokémon Center ETB Still Has a Different Case
I still like the Pokémon Center ETB more than most 30th Celebration sealed products.
The reason is not the 11 packs.
It is the exclusive Pokémon Center stamped Nidorina.
If 30th Celebration packs eventually become easy to find, the stamped promo remains tied specifically to that product.
That gives the box a second source of collector demand beyond the packs.
The regular ETB does not have that same advantage.
Neither does a Booster Bundle.
That is why I would separate the sealed market into two categories.
Products collectors want because they contain packs, and products collectors want because the sealed product itself is unique.
The Pokémon Center ETB fits the second category.
The December tins mostly fit the first.
The Booster Bundle May Become the Best Supply Indicator
One product I will watch particularly closely is the Booster Bundle.
At $26.94 MSRP for six packs, it gives us a relatively clean way to measure what the market thinks a 30th Celebration pack is worth.
There are fewer accessories and promos muddying the calculation.
If Booster Bundles become widely available close to retail, it becomes difficult to argue that 30th Celebration packs themselves are scarce.
If Booster Bundles remain consistently expensive months after release despite repeated restocks, that would tell us demand is genuinely absorbing the available supply.
That is useful information.
I would rather use that than Pokémon Center queue times to determine whether the set is actually scarce.
More Supply Does Not Mean the Set Will Fail
This is another distinction worth making.
I am not bearish on 30th Celebration because Pokémon is releasing a lot of product.
I think the set is probably strong enough to handle a huge print run.
There are 30 different Pikachu cards, Futuristic Rares, a Classic Collection and some of the most collectible Pokémon in the hobby.
People are going to open this set.
The question is whether they will open enough of it to keep singles supply high.
A heavily printed set can still be one of the most popular Pokémon sets ever released.
It can also produce expensive cards.
What heavy supply usually changes is how quickly those cards become expensive.
My Read Heading Into Release
Every new 30th Celebration product makes me more comfortable waiting.
Not because I think the set is bad.
Because I think collectors are going to get plenty of opportunities to buy it.
The market is currently pricing some products as if September 16 is the only chance anyone will have.
The product schedule tells us otherwise.
There are releases coming in October.
There are major products coming in November.
There are now additional products coming in December.
That gives Pokémon months to put more packs into circulation.
If demand absorbs all of that and prices remain strong, I will become much more bullish because the market will have proven itself against real supply.
Until then, I would rather pay for proven scarcity than predicted scarcity.
30th Celebration already has enough hype.
Now I want to see what happens when it has supply.
