If you have been ignoring the Obsidian Flames Charizard ex Ultra Rare, you probably should not be.
The Charizard ex #215/197 from Obsidian Flames has moved more than 28% over the last 30 days, but raw Near Mint to Mint copies are still selling under $25. That matters because this is still Charizard. Not a side character. Not a forgettable full art. It is the most recognizable name in Pokémon cards, sitting at a price point that is still reachable for normal collectors.
That does not mean you blindly buy every copy you see. It does mean this card deserves attention before the market fully catches up.
Why This Card Is Moving
Obsidian Flames released in August 2023. Since then, the set has had time to settle, cool off, and start acting like stronger modern sets usually do. Early supply gets opened, weaker hands sell, sealed product becomes less visible, and collectors eventually circle back to the cards they should have paid more attention to the first time.
The obvious chase card from the set is the Charizard ex Special Illustration Rare #223/197. That card is already trading well above $100, which puts it outside the impulse buy range for a lot of collectors.
That is where the Ultra Rare #215/197 gets interesting.
You are getting the same character, same set, same Scarlet and Violet era Charizard exposure, but at a much lower entry point. It is not the premium chase version, and it should not be treated like one. But as a lower cost Charizard play, it makes sense.
Recent sales have Near Mint copies moving around the $24 to $26 range after sitting closer to $19 about a month ago. That is a meaningful move, but it is not a ridiculous one yet. The Gold Hyper Rare Charizard ex #228/197 from the same set has also been climbing, which tells you this is not just one random card getting attention. The market is looking back at Obsidian Flames Charizards as a group.
The Charizard Premium Is Still Real
People love to act like Charizard is overdone. Maybe it is. But overdone does not mean irrelevant.
Charizard still carries more collector demand than almost any other Pokémon in the hobby. From vintage Base Set cards to modern chase cards, the pattern has been pretty clear. When Pokémon cards heat up, Charizard usually moves first or close to first. When the market cools, stronger Charizard cards often hold up better than weaker hype driven cards.
That is why this card matters.
Collectors who bought the Obsidian Flames Charizard ex Ultra Rare in the $12 to $15 range during 2024 are already in a strong position. At today’s $24 to $26 range, the easy money has already been made. But that does not automatically mean the card is overpriced.
It means the question has changed.
You are no longer asking whether this was an obvious cheap buy. You are asking whether a modern Ultra Rare Charizard under $30 still has room to run.
Based on the current Poke Forecast AI projection, the 6 month mid range forecast puts Near Mint to Mint raw copies around $32 to $38. That is not a moonshot prediction. It is a reasonable next step if Obsidian Flames keeps tightening and Charizard demand stays steady.
The main risks are obvious. A reprint would add supply. A weaker Pokémon card market would slow momentum. And if collectors rotate into newer chase cards, this one could stall for a while.
Still, for patient collectors, the setup is not bad. You have a recognizable card, a strong character, a popular modern set, and a current price that has not completely run away yet.
What to Look for When Buying
Do not buy this card just because the chart looks good.
Obsidian Flames Ultra Rares can have print lines, edge wear, surface marks, and centering issues. That matters even more if you are buying with grading in mind.
Before you buy a raw Near Mint copy, look closely at the card under good lighting. Ask for clear photos of the front, back, corners, edges, and holo surface. One blurry photo in a sleeve is not enough.
You want sharp corners, clean edges, no obvious whitening, no scratches across the surface, and no distracting print defects in the artwork. A card can be listed as Near Mint and still be a weak copy. That is where buyers get lazy and overpay.
If you are paying near the top of the raw market, be picky. There are still enough copies out there that you do not need to chase the first one you see.
Final Take
The Obsidian Flames Charizard ex #215/197 is not the biggest card in the set. It is not the rarest Charizard from Obsidian Flames. And it is not guaranteed to keep climbing.
But it is still a modern Ultra Rare Charizard under $25, and that is getting harder to ignore.
For collectors who want Charizard exposure without paying SIR prices, this is one of the cleaner budget plays in the Scarlet and Violet era right now. The move has already started, but the card has not reached a price where the opportunity is gone.
Use the Poke Forecast prediction tool to get the latest AI-powered price forecast before you buy.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research before purchasing collectibles.